Four Pillars to the
Investment Process

I. Valuation

II. Monetary Policy

III. Sentiment

IV. Momentum

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III. Sentiment: The third pillar of the process is investor sentiment, taking a contrarian view. Unfortunately, most classes of investors are wrong at market inflection points. Our process is to look for extreme and opposite behavior from the ”wrong way” crowd, which includes Wall Street strategists, the individual investor, hedge fund managers, options speculators, put/call ratios and more. There is one class of investors that is generally correct: the corporate insider buying his or her own shares in the open market. We also analyze information of trends in mutual fund flows. Typically spikes in inflows occur at or near a market top and in contrast you’ll see an acceleration of outflows into market bottoms.